WP 5 "Vulnerability" combines the results of the other work packages to perform an integrated vulnerability analysis for the selected study areas in Petra and Amman. Using a scenario analysis, promising adaptation strategies are simulated and assessed using indicators depicting the different social and ecological dimensions of vulnerability. Different options will be investigated with the aim of decreasing vulnerability. The resulting recommendations for action will be published as manuals, guidelines or policy briefs.
Integrated vulnerability assessment and scenario analysis
Different analysis methods and modelling tools are used for each of the three vulnerability dimensions that are the subject of the investigations conducted in WP 2 (Heavy rainfall hazards), WP 3 (Exposure & Sensitivity), and WP 4 (Adaptive Capacity). Based on this, the results are incorporated in a coupled hydrological/hydraulic model to conduct an integrated scneraio analysis and vulnerability assessment. The methodology of the integrated vulnerability analysis is aligned to the needs of the political actors. Due to the heterogeneous data basis (spatial, non-spatial, quantitative, qualitative), an intersection of the determined climate impacts with the adaptation capacities for vulnerability will be carried out semi-quantitatively.
Scenarios for future considerations that incorporate adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability while accounting for both climatic and socio-economic changes will be identified. The selection of the adaptation strategies and the scenario development is taken place in a participatory manner with local stakeholders. The aim is to map and evaluate the identified and promising adaptation strategies (traditional and improved methods and technologies) that can contribute to decreasing vulnerability to flash floods and climate impacts.
Measures and recommendations
The simulated scenarios are discussed and assessed with local stakeholders. Promising adaptation strategies (traditional and improved methods and technologies) that can contribute to increasing resilience to flash floods and climate impacts are identified jointly. This will lay the foundation to develop recommendations for action, which are compiled via manuals, guidelines or policy briefs.